MOBILE, Ala. (WKRG) – A week ahead of the official start of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released their predications for the upcoming season.
Their predictions are 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, which includes 1 to 4 major hurricanes.
This is considered a near-average season with the average being 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. According to NOAA, there is a 30% chance of a below-average season, a 40% chance of a near-average season, and a 30% chance of an above-average season.
In addition to NOAA, Colorado State University also releases seasonal forecasts. They predict a slightly below-average season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Get more info on their forecast here.
Several factors are taken into consideration when determining the number of expected storms for the Atlantic basin, including water temperature, El Niño and La Niña pattern, and more. This year, El Niño is forecast which helps inhibit tropical development, but we are seeing warm ocean temps which helps tropical development.
Remember, it only takes one storm to make our season impactful. Please prepare early and make sure you get your tropical information from a reliable source.
We are also already tracking an area of disturbed weather that is forecast to move towards the Carolinas this weekend. Get more info here.